March Madness is among the biggest betting events held each year. Millions of individuals take part each year by filling out brackets and betting, trying to take home the big money. With all the excitement also come a number of betting myths, though. Every seasoned bettor believed in these myths at some point. Yes, I also did too. I used to believe that a wager on the higher seed was a lock, and I believed that if I did enough research, a perfect bracket was attainable.
The reality is that the majority of these myths are detrimental to your betting strategy and will have you making errors. That’s why I’m going to debunk the largest March Madness 2025 betting myths so you can place smarter bets and stay away from popular pitfalls.
Myth #1: It’s Always the Right Call to Bet the Higher Seed
The most prevalent myth is that higher-seeded teams always win. It sounds good on the surface, higher seeds are better, so they must be stronger, right?
Reality: Upsets occur annually, and lower seeds regularly record upset victories. Indeed, in nearly every tournament, we witness a #12 seed defeating a #5 seed in the first round. Placing wagers on only the higher seeds is one way of surrendering possible value bets.
What You Should Do Instead:
- Go beyond seeding – Take into account stats such as recent form, injuries, and team matchups.
- Look for live underdogs – A few of the lower seeds are burning at the right time and will make a deep run.
- Don’t be afraid to wager upsets – If value is presented by the odds, a bet on an underdog is a good play.
Myth #2: You Can Achieve a Perfect Bracket If You Conduct Enough Research
Millions attempt to complete a perfect bracket each year, hoping that the right research will allow them to correctly select every winner. I once believed that if I read enough statistics, I would be able to come close.
Reality: The chances of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. It’s basically impossible. Even so-called experts get numerous games incorrect since March Madness is completely unpredictable. Injuries, poor shooting nights, and crazy upsets destroy even the most prophetic predictions.
What You Should Do:
- Concentrate on intelligent betting, not perfection – Don’t try to pick every winner, but rather seek out good value bets.
- Utilize betting strategies – Bankroll management and spreading bets around are more crucial than nailing every game.
- Don’t strive for perfection – Even professional analysts are wrong sometimes, so do not get frustrated when you are as well.
Myth #3: Always Bet the Favorite to Cover the Spread
Most assume the favorite will cover the point spread. If a team is a -7 favorite, they need to win by 7 points or more, right?
Reality: Favorites don’t always cover. Underdogs during the tournament have a tendency to make games closer than they should be or win outright. Besides, sportsbooks put out lines to split action, not precise forecasts.
What You Should Do:
Consider teams’ performances against the spread (ATS) – A few favorites win but fail to cover. Others cover while losing as underdogs:
- Matchups consider – A slow, defensive basketball-playing team can keep the game close, even in a loss.
- Wager on the underdog to cover – If a solid underdog is receiving +10 points, they do not have to win—only keep it close.
Myth #4: Betting Large After a Loss Allows You to Recoup Your Money
This is called chasing losses, and I’ve also been guilty of it. Once you lose, you’re inclined to place a bigger bet on the next match in the hope of recovering it
Reality: This is a risky strategy. Betting emotionally results in poor decisions and even larger losses. Just because you lost this bet doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll win the next.
What To Do Instead:
- Adhere to your bankroll strategy – Place the same sized bets regardless of whether you’re winning or losing.
- Don’t bet to “get even” – Bet only when you have good value, not due to frustration.
- Take a break when necessary – If you’re experiencing a losing streak, take a break and re-evaluate your strategy.
Myth #5: There is no Home Court Advantage in March Madness
Because these tournaments are held at neutral locations, home court advantage cannot possibly exist.
Reality: Though teams are not playing in their traditional home stadiums, location is still a problem. There are some teams with shorter travel distances, more energy and fans. Some teams are accustomed to playing in particular regions.
What To Do Instead:
- Consider travel distances – Teams that play near home can have more crowd support.
- Consider fan presence – There are some teams with enormous fan bases that turn neutral-site games into home games.
- Consider tournament experience – Teams that have March Madness experience may be more prepared for the pressure.
Myth #6: Live Betting Is Always a Good Strategy
March Madness Live betting is thrilling since you can bet during the game. Most individuals believe that this provides an advantage since they can respond to what’s currently unfolding.
Reality: In-play betting is lucrative but dangerous. Odds shift rapidly, and if you’re not careful, you’ll place poor bets in the heat of the moment.
What You Need To Do Differently:
- Live bet when you spot value – Don’t bet simply because odds appear appealing.
- Don’t bet emotionally – If a favorite gets behind early, don’t think they’ll recover and win.
- Have a strategy prior to the start of the game – If you are planning to live bet, decide in advance what you are searching for.
Myth #7: Betting More Games Improves Your Chances of Winning
The majority of individuals believe that if they bet on additional games, they stand a higher chance of winning. I also believed this once but quickly learned that it doesn’t function this way.
Reality: The more bets you place, the more you are at risk. Betting too much on too many games will deplete your funds in a flash. Selective betting is more intelligent than betting on every game.
What You Should Do Differently:
- Bet selectively – Only bet on those games that offer true value based on your analysis.
- Manage your bankroll – Putting too much money on too many bets will only hasten losses.
- Less is more – A few well-researched bets are better than throwing money at each game.
Myth #8: The “Hot Hand” Streak Always Continues
Most gamblers have a belief that if a team or player is on a hot streak, they’ll just keep on winning. When a team wins five games in a row, for example, it only stands to reason to bet on them again, right?
Reality: Streaks are misleading. A team might have been playing well, but that does not mean they will win the next game. Matchups, fatigue, and tournament pressure all play a role in performance.
What To Do Instead:
- Look at matchups, not necessarily recent wins – A “hot” team might not fare well against a defensive-oriented opponent.
- Look for signs of fatigue – Teams with multiple games in a short number of days might slow down.
- Don’t overvalue streaks – A streak is only good for the next game.
Myth #9: The Public Always Knows Best
Some bettors have the feeling if most individuals are betting on a team, then it must be the right option. If everybody is backing a high-quality team like Duke or Kentucky, then it comes naturally to follow the group.
Reality: The public is generally wrong. Sportsbooks set lines to obtain equal action on both sides, not to reflect the exact probability of winning. When too many people bet on one side, odds are adjusted, and this can create value on the opposite side.
What You Should Do Instead:
- Avoid “public favorites” – Teams with huge followings are often overvalued in the odds.
- Look for sharp money movement – Pro handicappers bet early before the lines move public.
- Shan the public when there is value – When a trendy team is getting too much action, take the underdog.
Myth #10: Big Parlays Are the Best Way to Win Big
Parlays (betting on multiple results in one bet) offer astronomical payouts, and most believe they’re the best way to win big in the tournaments.
Reality: Parlays are hard to win because all of the games have to be correct. No matter how enticing a big payout is, one loss in a game wipes out the entire bet.
What You Should Do Differently:
- Make single bets – These have better chances of winning over the long haul.
- Make small parlays if you must – A two- or three-leg parlay is much safer than a five- or six-leg one.
- Bet for value, not large payouts – Consistent winning is preferable to a long-shot payout
Conclusion
March Madness betting is fun, but believing in common myths is a surefire way to lose money. Knowing the reality of such myths, makes you a smart bettor. Rather than blindly backing those favorites or attempting to chase losses back, be intelligent about it: study matchups, keep track of your bankroll, and search for value bets. The secret to winning money during these games is not luck, it’s intelligent betting and self-control.
